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The rupee is likely to open solider on Monday as optimism from the recent aid deal for Greece, strong growth pointers from Germany and a fluidity injection expected from the European Central Bank help progress global risk appetite.

* Traders said the rupee should open around 48.75 to the dollar and move between 48.65 and 49.10. It closed at 48.9450/9550 on Friday, strengthening 0.6 percent last week, its second straight week of gain.

* The European Central Bank will this week offer, for the second time, an unlimited volume of cheap three-year loans to European banks.

* However, the MSCI index of Asian stocks ex-Japan was down 0.41 percent at 0221 GMT and the Nifty India stock futures index in Singapore was 0.29 percent lower.

Domestic Equity Outlook – NIFTY closes the week

with loss of 2.5%

Indices took breather last week after advancing for seven straight weeks

in row adding about 20.1% to index. Last week NIFTY started on a

strong note however rally soon fizzled out as NIFTY met with strong

technical hurdle around 5,655 mark. By end of the week, NIFTY closed

with a loss of 2.5% at 5,426 mark while BSE Sensex closed the week

with loss of about 2% at 17,921 mark. None of the sectoral indices closed

Markets have been volatile this month. Falling to its lows and immediately giving ~23% returns in just a month. I was waiting tolerantly that markets will stay at low levels for few months in which I will build positions in the stocks which I thought were attractively valued. But in vain, most of the mid caps and small caps which I mostly invest in have gained a lot. Take some instances - Banking stocks are up, almost by 25-35%. Even famous capital goods stocks like Thermax and Crompton Greaves have risen by ~27%.

So is there any stock which can be bought at these levels? The stock which has not gained that much and is currently underrated.

We can match the quarterly results and % price rise in the last 1 and 6 months to come up with the list of stocks: (Some of the stocks would have appeared in my writings earlier, and may be biased :P. Hence please do your own enquiry before buying any of these)

The Nifty opened & traded lower taking support at 5568 levels during the day, it however towards the last hour of trading broke that level followed by a crucial break of 5535 signalling the first sign of weakness and a conceivable reaction to this major up move.

BSE index:

(18156) It'll fall down advance to 18013 initially, which is a crucial support. Break below 18007 further panic will drag it down to 17915-17895 which is a most crucial support to watch out for. In worst scenario break below 17888 it'll crash down to 17759 & 17460.

Upward side 18232-18295 nearest & 18385 a solid resistance up to which selling on higher levels will be seen, keep stop loss of 18527 to your shorts on higher levels.

Market were on flame for the 7th straight week and moved a 7-month high with both the spiders Sensex and Effective breaching the 18,100 and 5,510 levels respectively on the back of powerful international hints and overseas inflows. This move was also led by purchasing by resources and store traders. On the sectoral front side, Real estate, Power and Investment products obtained floor.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 4,517.09 crs including provisional data of February 17, as against Rs4,040.70 crs last week.

Also during the week with the Q3 results season having ended, there was significant price action seen in pivotal counters from large sectors like Banking, Capital Goods and Autos. Tata Motors was in limelight after it announced record Q3 consolidated profits of Rs 3406 crs which were way ahead of market expectations. This saw the stock spurt by almost 6.% during the week. State Bank of India was also up 5% at Rs 2,469 and ICICI Bank gained 2% to Rs 980.40 on Friday on fresh buying by institutional investors.

On the other hand capital goods majors like Bharat Heavy Electricals was trading up 9.7% at Rs 311.20 and Larsen & Toubro surged 2.5% to Rs 1,482 levels. There was renewed interest in power equipment players after the Supreme Court overturned the Delhi High Court verdict that allowed Italian boiler manufacturer Ansaldo Caldaie Boilers to bid for providing equipment to NTPC. The court upheld NTPC's decision to disqualify the Italian firm from participating in this Rs 16,000 crore power equipment tender. This has increased chances of BHEL to bag a sizeable share of this Rs 16000 crs order.

On the policy side the central government under directions from the PMO announced that Coal India would have to work out firm Fuel Supply Agreements (FSAs) with independent power producers who were under tremendous pressure to raise power output.

This decision will undoubtedly put pressure on Coal India as any under delivery from its side would attract penalties and it would have to make up this shortfall from imports. However from a longer term perspective this is a welcome move as the government looks serious to address the core concerns facing the power sector. The Coal India stock was down by 5% over the week while other IPPs like Adani Power, Reliance Power, Lanco Infratech and Jindal Power were all up by 5 to 9% over this week. Finally the Nifty closed at 5563 levels from 5380 last week showing a rise of 3%

Nifty has no sign of weakness since Jan 2012
Overall trend is bullish and decline to buying opportunity
Now consider resistance 5530-5541
Decisively crossover, more upside...
Downside support 5470-5453, break below 5420
Whereas the buying opportunity.

Trend is very bullish and dip to buying opportunity
Today support 18100-17941 and resistance 18100
Thereafter more upside.

Trend is down as remain below 855
But, at current level oversold counter in Bull Market
Consider support 801-806 - to buy.

The Indian markets started the session with good gains on the back of positive Asian cues. Buying is seen in all the sectors, with auto, capital goods, realty, banking and consumer durables among major gainers. The Sensex is trading above 18100 level for the first time since August 8, 2011.

Asian stocks moved higher, with sentiment given a boost from signs that China will expand its support to Europe as the region grapples with debt woes.

Out of 30 Sensex stock, Gainers - Tata Motors up by 6.74%, Maruti up by 3.67% and M&M up by 3.69%. Losers - RIL down by 0.67%, NTPC down by 0.24% and HUL down by 0.22%.

All the sectors are trading in green. Top most gainers - BSE Auto up by 3.33%, BSE Realty up by 2.22% and BSE Capital Goods up by 2.15%

The Sensex was trading at 18065, up by 223 points and the Nifty was trading at 5473, up by 65 points.

The combined market capitalisation (m-cap) of nine of the top 10 most valued companies advanced by Rs 29,775 crore last week, with TCS as the top gainer.
Only Bharit Airtel posted decline. The telecom major suffered erosion of Rs 14,696 crore in value, which stood at Rs 1,32,876 crore on Friday.
The company on Wednesday registered 22% fall in consolidated net profit for the October-December quarter at Rs 1,010 crore due to higher interest outgo and costs related to 3G network roll-out. It extended decline in profits to the eighth quarter in a row.
Bharti's scrip plunged nearly 10% last week.
The market cap of TCS advanced by Rs 12,213 crore to Rs 2,40,846 crore.
Energy major RIL's market worth rose by Rs 1,445 crore to Rs 2,75,762 crore, while state-owned ONGC added Rs 684 crore to its m-cap which stood at Rs 2,40,793 crore on Friday.
Coal India Ltd m-cap saw a surge of Rs 3,410 crore to Rs 2,09,449 crore; Infosys added Rs 156 crore to its value which stood at Rs 1,59,786 crore; ITC's worth jumped Rs 2,148 crore to Rs 1,58,500 crore and NTPC's valuation accelerated by Rs 2,926 crore to Rs 1,48,293 crore.

Nifty Tips

Nifty has finally broken major resistance level 200 DMA showing continuous upward movement and till then hold... decline to buying opportunity

Now Today - consider support at 5390-5375

Crossover 5450 and sustained with volume


Now up-move to continue and next target of this up-move likely to be 18000-18126 thereafter more up-side

Today consider support at 17609... above 17879, stay with volume positive bias.


Finally successfully crossover 10445 and closed

Above indicate more up-side...

Now today support 10351-

Above 10600 more up side.


Closed at 5448

Today support range



As long as hold 5225

And weekly close above 5434

Next target 5530-5700.

The lows of  4500 in the month of December we  hit 5400 on 07 Feb 2012 . Roughly a 18% gain. It was a clear indication that the markets will move up when the RBI announced a CRR cut. We were trading around 5050 in Nifty futures when the CRR cut was announced. The 200 DMA was around 5195 on the spot and we comfortably crossed that hurdle and now currently trading around 5400 levels. Around 5200 levels traders were talking about the over-bought situation in the front line stocks and the index. Indices were in no mood for a pause. Today Nikkei hits 3 month highs as the Auto giant Toyota raised the profit outlook and the strengthening of Yen boosted the sentiment. It is few notches away from hitting the 9000 mark.

Today we may trade above 5400 and there is a good chance that we may close above that level if there are no negative surprises from the EU.

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Bank Nifty FEB Future: (10155) Consider for this week...Buy or remain long considering 10090 a nearest & 9981 a solid support keeping stop loss of 9900. Upward side it'll rush up further to 10235 & 10303-10350 initially. A close above 10350 it'll sustain on higher levels & flare up to 10438-10498, 10653 & 11000.

Nifty FEB future: (5345) Consider for this week...Buy or remain long considering 5311 & 5300-5288 solid supports keeping stop loss of 5264. Upward side it'll rush up further to 5375 & 5391-5410 initially. A close above 5410 it'll sustain on higher levels & spurt up further to 5449, 5499 & 5533. A close above 5533 it'll flare up further to 5622.

BSE index: (17605) Consider for this week...Buy or remain long considering 17507 & 17442 solid supports keeping stop loss of 17382. Upward side it'll spurt up further to 17726, 17835 & 17904-17947 initially. A close above 17947 it'll sustain on higher levels & spurt up further to 18134, 18181-18221 & thereafter to 18597-18674.

BHARAT FORGE: (304) Buy considering 300-298 a solid support keeping stop loss of 291. Upward side it'll spurt up to 321, 327 & 333.
MARUTI: (1235) Buy considering 1226 a solid support keeping stop loss of 1205. Upward side it'll spurt up to 1267, 1286 & 1318.

"Share Trading"

The Indian market opens for trade on the last day of the week on a flat-to-negative note. Earlier, the US markets closed flat with a mixed bias with the Dow down 11 and Nasdaq up 11 odd points while Asia is soft at this hour. Sensex is trading at 17421, down 8 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 5261, down 7 points. CNX Midcap index is up 0.2% and BSE Smallcap index is up 0.3%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 379 against declines of 311 on the NSE.

Buy Pantaloon Retail with a target of Rs 180 and stop loss of Rs 165. The stock is currently trading at Rs 175.21, up 2.6% on the BSE.

Buy Indiabulls Real Estate with a target of Rs 74and stop loss of Rs 61. The stock is currently trading at Rs 69.14, up 1.5% on the BSE.

Buy Ranbaxy with a target of Rs 484 and stop loss of Rs 444. The stock is currently trading at Rs 464.94, up 2% on the BSE.
Share Trading

After testing the low of 5158, Nifty pulled back in the green as positive cues from European peers boosted sentiments and closed above the psychological level of 5100 suggesting that momentum. If NIFTY trades above 5260 and then 5280 is possible. On the downside, the support would be at 5150/5120 levels. Short term traders are advised to avoid fresh long positions at this point of time as the ceiling of the downward price channel formed on weekly chart at 5280 will act as a strong short term hurdle and move above this level is needed before traders can initiate fresh long positions. If NIFTY breaks above 5280 on weekly closing basis, and then we could see 5390/5410 levels. Failure to move above 5280 levels will keep the index moving in the band between 4910 and 5,300.

Technically Nifty is also looking weak for coming days. The next major Strong Resistance in the nifty is above 5478 mark. Live Technical Nifty future Targets and Stop loss for clients only.

Technically sensex looking weak for coming days. The next major Resistance level of sensex is 17820. Live Technical Targets and Stop loss for clients only.

The Indian market opens for trade this morning on a flat and subdued note, with a negative bias. Earlier, the US markets ended flat with the Dow down 20 odd points while Asia is mixed at this hour. Sensex is trading at 17166, down 26 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 5185, down 13 points. CNX Midcap index is down 0.1% and BSE Smallcap index is up 0.4%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 350 against declines of 262 on the NSE.

Today, the market is likely to find support at the Nifty level of 5150 so one could hold longs with a stop loss of 5150 with resistance coming in at 5250.

Buy HCL Technologies with a target of Rs 446 and stop loss of Rs 431.

Buy Bata India with a target of Rs 720 and stop loss of Rs 671.

Share Trading